Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 102
6/29/2025, 2:22:35 PM
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In reply to:
Kacper Duras
@kacper_duras
·
20d
@GaryMarcus The second and third points are unsolvable
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
21d
Nine June 2029 AI predictions — from someone who was basically 7/7 on 2024:

1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.

2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
496d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

The statement is part of a public discourse on the future of AI, specifically discussing the limitations and potential solutions for large language models (LLMs). It engages with predictions about AI development and contributes to a broader conversation about technological advancements and their implications.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is a neutral observation about AI technology, adhering to the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by suggesting that other techniques may solve issues that pure LLMs cannot, aligning with the principle of promoting understanding. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing a specific point in the conversation without resorting to personal attacks, adhering to the principle of constructive criticism. [+1]