Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
4/1/2024, 2:03:18 AM
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In reply to:
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
·
464d
@GaryMarcus @MatthewJBar @Wikimedia The jump from GPT-4 to GPT-3 was very big, and 6 months is an aggressive time interval. GPT 3.5 -> GPT 4 would seem more amenable to me.

Also, we should compare present day performance of GPT-4 to whatever will be live in 6 months, even if that is still called GPT-4.

GPT-5…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
464d
@ohabryka @MatthewJBar $1000 says nothing publicly testable by six months from today will be obviously better overall than GPT4 as GPT-4 was relative to GPT-3. Stuart judges.

If I win, proceeds go to @Wikimedia.

I win if there are a few dimensions of clear improvement (as you could argue with Claude…
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
·
464d
@GaryMarcus @MatthewJBar That's great! Would you be up for taking a bet on this?

1:1 odds, happy with whatever stake you feel comfortable with. We could delegate arbitration to a trusted third party (maybe Stuart Russell if he is up for it, who I think we would both trust to adjudicate this fairly).
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
464d
@MatthewJBar 💯
Matthew Barnett
@MatthewJBar
·
464d
@GaryMarcus Does that mean you don't expect anything substantially better than GPT-4 in the next 6 months either, if new ideas are not implemented?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
464d
It wasn’t a pause; it was a failure.

Nobody stopped because of external pressure.

They did their best to move forward, past GPT-4—and couldn’t.

The time for new ideas is now.

The statement is part of a conversation about the development and improvement of AI technology, specifically the iterations of the GPT models. The tone is collaborative and technical, with the intent to discuss and possibly bet on the progress of AI technology within a certain timeframe. The content revolves around the expectations of innovation and improvement in AI models.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not seem to cause harm with words or actions. [+1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others and does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement uses words to promote understanding of AI technology progress. [+1]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism and dialogue about AI development without personal attacks. [+1]
  5. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    There is no indication of a mistake that needs to be acknowledged or corrected.
  6. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The discussion could indirectly influence the betterment of society by fostering a better understanding of AI technology. [+1]
  7. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly and with integrity. [+1]