Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 83
4/11/2024, 8:22:31 PM
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In reply to:
Ethan Mollick
@emollick
·
663d
@GaryMarcus That is not right. The paper came out two weeks ago. It is not “old news” & I don’t think dismissing it in that way makes any sense.

I have no solid idea if progress will continue at that pace. You have made your prediction that LLMs are over. Fine. We will learn more soon.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
663d
@emollick That paper is old news. You are ignoring the fact that the recent data no longer fit the curve by any reasonable metric.

Also you ignoring statements by Demis, Bill Gates, myself etc all pointing to/predicting a plateau (because of data, power consumption, outliers), without…
Ethan Mollick
@emollick
·
663d
@GaryMarcus I am not making a random statement, I am citing this paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.05812…

So it might be better to discuss the research here rather than having subjective conversation.

But leaps on many measures from GPT-3 to 3.5 to GPT-4 were more than a doubling of capabilities.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
663d
People eat this stuff up.

But @emollick is there any evidence that it was true over the last 13 months, since GPT-4 was released?
Is GPT turbo—or any other model—twice as good as GPT-4? Four or more times as good? By what metric?

I really don’t see that in the data.

The statement is part of a substantive engagement with the topic of technological progress in the field of artificial intelligence, specifically the development of Large Language Models. It involves interpretation of recent research findings and predictions about future advancements, contributing to the civic dialogue on AI development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement aims to clarify the findings of a paper and provide context to the discussion, which is constructive and informative. [+1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others and does not engage in any form of harassment or hate speech. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The tone of the statement is neutral and aims to promote understanding by providing additional information about the pace of LLM development. [+1]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by addressing the claims made in the previous messages and providing a nuanced view of the paper's findings. [+1]
  5. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    The statement acknowledges the limitations of the data and the informal evidence, which shows a willingness to correct or qualify previous assertions. [+1]
  6. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The statement contributes to the betterment of society by fostering an informed discussion about the progress in AI. [+1]
  7. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement uses the platform responsibly to discuss the paper's findings and their implications for the field of AI. [+1]