Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 118
Semantic Brain
@BrainSemantic
·
265d
@GaryMarcus Expecting GPT-5 Elo score to go up ~100. Would be surprised if it goes up more than 200 points.
4/23/2024, 6:51:49 PM
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In reply to:
alth0u🤸
@alth0u
·
264d
@GaryMarcus do you have one? feels like there is one that just needs a bit of formalizing here
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
264d
@alth0u it’s not a prediction per se
alth0u🤸
@alth0u
·
264d
.@GaryMarcus would you put money on this?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
264d
13.5 months post GPT-4:

• Models that are not as good as GPT-4 have become widespread.

• Models that are roughly as good GPT-4 have become common.

• Models that are significantly better than GPT-4 don’t exist.

If that doesn’t hint at diminishing returns and potential…

The statement in question is part of a broader conversation about the development and expectations surrounding AI models, specifically in relation to their performance improvements over time. The user @alth0u, in agreement with @brainsemantic, speculates on the potential performance improvement of future AI models compared to GPT-4, suggesting a modest increase in ELO points by the end of 2024. This discussion touches upon the pace of technological advancement in AI and the realistic expectations that can be set for future developments.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does no harm as it is a speculative, technical prediction about AI model performance. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement respects the dignity of others by maintaining a professional and factual tone without any derogatory or harmful content. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement contributes to a broader understanding of AI development trends and sets realistic expectations, fostering a more informed discussion among interested parties. [+1]
  4. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    The user acknowledges the ongoing conversation and builds upon previous statements, showing a willingness to engage in a constructive dialogue. [+1]
  5. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement uses the platform to discuss relevant technological advancements responsibly, contributing to the public's understanding of AI development. [+1]