Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
|
Score 83
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
687d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
5/20/2024, 2:24:45 PM
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In reply to:
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
·
616d
@GaryMarcus @bindureddy I think your reasoning is flawed. If LLMs are to hit an intrinsic wall then competitors will likely catch-up ,(which they have) and OpenAI has no moat. So even if Altman is ASPD, it doesn't matter in the long run. Assuming of course we've hit a wall.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
619d
To clear up some common concerns and confusions:

I don’t think LLMs per se are becoming too powerful (i do in fact expect them to stall), but it worries me that one of the biggest, most well-funded AI companies seems hellbent on world-domination (as @bindureddy just put it) and…
Toonami Aftermath
@ToonamiAfter
·
619d
@NeilMcDevitt_ @GaryMarcus If we're being generous to Gary, it seems he thinks that LLMs are both becoming too powerful AND unreliable.

I don't know how to reconcile his position that LLMs are hitting a wall in capability with that though.

I btw think they will improve and am not particularly concerned.

The statement in question is part of a broader conversation about the future of large language models (LLMs) and the competitive landscape of AI companies, particularly OpenAI. The tone is analytical and predictive, engaging with public concerns about AI development and corporate strategies. The intent appears to be to contribute to the ongoing debate about the capabilities and market dynamics of AI technologies.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions. It is a reasoned prediction about the future of AI technology. [+1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others. It does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement aims to promote understanding by contributing to a technical discussion about AI capabilities and market dynamics. [+1]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism and dialogue. It does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  5. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly to discuss a significant public issue. [+1]