Gary Marcus

Rank 15 of 47
|
Score 76
6/15/2024, 6:12:03 PM
X
In reply to:
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
515d
@GaryMarcus I think it's essentially exactly correct; conditional on progress not slowing down at all, we'll see AGI in the coming decade. The only justifiable reason to predict slower timelines, IMO, is if recent major advances won't be repeated, that "just scaling" won't keep working, etc.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
515d
@davidmanheim Well maybe it’s not a literal contradiction, but i take the first statement to much stronger than the second, which spreads the probability mass around quite a bit. 10-20 perhaps vs 10-40 perhaps.
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
515d
@GaryMarcus This seems like a motivated misunderstanding.
Do you really see a contradiction between "seeing the last decade of progress, it could plausibly be repeated in the coming 10 years, which would be superintelligence" and "overall, I think there's a 50-50 chance of AGI in 20 years"?

The statement by @davidmanheim constitutes public discourse as it engages in a substantive discussion about the progress and future of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is a significant public issue in the field of technology and ethics.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions. It is a factual assertion about the state of technological progress.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not explicitly promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, but it does contribute to a factual and analytical discussion, which can indirectly promote understanding.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by providing a counterpoint to the previous assertion without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly by contributing to an important public debate with a factual assertion. [+1]