Gary Marcus

Rank 15 of 47
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Score 76
6/15/2024, 7:53:33 PM
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In reply to:
Dan Brickley
@danbri
·
515d
@GaryMarcus “plausibly… in 10 years” and “50-50 chance we’ll get in the next in 20 years” are entirely compatible.

Imagine playing a round of russian roulette once every 5 years, starting tomorrow…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
515d
There’s an old joke that starts “Dad, can I borrow 50 dollars?”

The father replies, “50 dollars? I can’t loan you forty dollars, and don’t tell your mother you asked for thirty. Take this 20”

Below Hinton goes from boldly projecting AGI “plausibly… in 10 years” to “50-50…
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
515d
Wise words from a recent interview with @geoffreyhinton, one of the smartest people in the world regarding AI

The statement 'Yes, as someone else noted above. A lot rests on what he meant by plausible.' is part of a broader conversation about AI predictions and the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This discussion involves public figures and addresses a significant societal issue, making it a part of public discourse.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions. It is a neutral comment that seeks clarification. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by seeking to clarify the meaning of 'plausible,' which can help in understanding the broader discussion about AI timelines. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by referencing another person's comment and seeking further clarification. It does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]