Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
7/23/2024, 8:34:07 PM
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In reply to:
SPXNEO
@SPXNEO
·
348d
@GaryMarcus so how can founders make money from this if the guys selling the shovel have no moat
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
348d
Still on track after today’s announcements, all 7 predictions:
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
483d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

The statement 'most of them won’t make money' is a brief, speculative comment on the financial prospects of companies involved in developing GPT-4 level models. It is part of a larger conversation about the future of AI technology and its economic implications, which constitutes public discourse.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words and actions. It is a neutral observation about market dynamics.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion. It is a straightforward economic prediction.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. It is focused on the economic viability of companies.
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly. It contributes to a discussion on a public issue without spreading misinformation or engaging in harmful rhetoric. [+1]