Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 115
9/14/2024, 3:56:35 AM
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In reply to:
Steven Adler
@sjgadler
·
360d
@GaryMarcus @tylercowen I think the article’s points are much more reasonable than the headline, FWIW - the headline just seems very incorrect. I think many fewer would have taken issue with the article if it had been called e.g. “To achieve general intelligence, symbolic representations might help”
Steven Adler
@sjgadler
·
360d
@GaryMarcus @tylercowen With due respect, the headline claim here - that “deep learning is hitting a wall” - seems quite mistaken, given it was published five days before even GPT-3.5’s release. Perhaps you didn’t write this headline though, as authors often don’t? https://nautil.us/deep-learning-…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
361d
@tylercowen All of this has held this far as well. Just giving few more examples. you have given a total of zero.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
548d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
361d
@tylercowen Still incredibly empty and nonspecific. My predictions of the following have all been correct, and generally doubted when initially made

Tendency towards hallucinations (2001 for deep learning in general, 2019 LLMs)
Tendency towards erratic reasoning (2001 and 2019 respectively)…
tylercowen
@tylercowen
·
361d
@GaryMarcus If someone wanted to understand the last say five to seven years in AI, and how they have unfolded, your earlier writings simply are not where anyone gets sent. No one contests that.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
361d
@tylercowen That is so empty it’s beneath you. Given me actual things I said, with quotes or sources, that have been proven wrong.

The statement constitutes public discourse as it engages in a substantive discussion about the accuracy and implications of an article related to artificial intelligence, a significant public issue. The statement also addresses the behavior of individuals involved in the discourse, which is relevant to the principles of respectful and constructive dialogue.

  1. Principle 1:
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    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words and actions. It maintains a respectful tone and acknowledges the professionalism of others, even when pointing out a lapse. [+1]
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    The statement promotes understanding by providing a detailed evaluation of the article and acknowledging the respectful behavior of others. [+1]
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    The statement engages in constructive criticism by evaluating the article's claims and addressing the temporary lapse in professionalism without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
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