Gary Marcus

Rank 22 of 47
|
Score 74
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
404d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
10/3/2024, 3:43:00 AM
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In reply to:
Jeremy Benjamin
@Phage_84
·
198d
@GaryMarcus @altryne @DeryaTR_ Man of his word🫡
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
198d
@altryne @DeryaTR_ I already addressed here many hours ago: (and yes Derya gets his $86, and we will see where things go from here).
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
198d
Can’t win’em all - hallucinations, stupid errors, bias, uninterpretability, and failures in reasoning and planning all remain, but I got this one wrong.

Did I overestimate the rationality and sensitivity to lack of profits, moat and team cohesion of some VCs? Are there…
Alex Volkov (Thursd/AI)
@altryne
·
198d
@DeryaTR_ @GaryMarcus and nobody heard from Gary since...
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
198d
Hey Gary @GaryMarcus, do you want to concede on our bet? 😊 Just admitting that you were wrong would be enough 😎

Alternatively, we could raise it 10x — I’m in! 😇

The conversation revolves around predictions and outcomes related to AI advancements and corporate valuations, specifically OpenAI. It involves a bet and subsequent discussions about the accuracy of predictions, reflecting on the dynamics of AI development and investment.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The conversation is mostly lighthearted and does not appear to cause harm, though it involves some critique of predictions. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The dialogue includes some constructive criticism and reflection on past predictions, but also contains a hint of personal challenge or rivalry. [+1]