Gary Marcus

Rank 17 of 47

Score 91

@paul_cal @DeryaTR_ The bet was about valuation *at end of 2025*.

if they keep losing money and staff and don’t ship GPT-5 by then and competitors overtake them (which is possible) or just give away same stuff for free, end of 2025 may not look so hot.

10/3/2024, 2:14:52 PM

In reply to:

Paul Calcraft

@paul_cal

229d

@DeryaTR_ @GaryMarcus He's right on his capabilities prediction and clearly wrong on his financial prediction. Pundits should gain some points for stating public quantifiable predictions. But even if no model better than GPT4 had been demonstrated, a 20% valuation hit on that timeline is wild

Derya Unutmaz, MD

@DeryaTR_

229d

Hey Gary @GaryMarcus, do you want to concede on our bet? 😊 Just admitting that you were wrong would be enough 😎

Alternatively, we could raise it 10x — I’m in! 😇

The statement engages in a discussion about the future valuation of a company and its technological advancements, reflecting on predictions and market competition. It is speculative and analytical, focusing on potential outcomes based on current trends.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and is a speculative analysis of market trends. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue, discussing potential outcomes without personal attacks. [+1]