Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
10/3/2024, 2:35:09 PM
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In reply to:
Paul Calcraft
@paul_cal
·
278d
@GaryMarcus @DeryaTR_ Agree others in thread are overstating "pay up" etc. given your pred is for end 2025. But given latest valuation, don't you now think 20% drop is unlikely to hold? Would have to be a v dramatic drop like a WeWork crash - feels less likely when R&D can keep saying "next year"
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
278d
@paul_cal @DeryaTR_ The bet was about valuation *at end of 2025*.

if they keep losing money and staff and don’t ship GPT-5 by then and competitors overtake them (which is possible) or just give away same stuff for free, end of 2025 may not look so hot.
Paul Calcraft
@paul_cal
·
278d
@DeryaTR_ @GaryMarcus He's right on his capabilities prediction and clearly wrong on his financial prediction. Pundits should gain some points for stating public quantifiable predictions. But even if no model better than GPT4 had been demonstrated, a 20% valuation hit on that timeline is wild
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
279d
Hey Gary @GaryMarcus, do you want to concede on our bet? 😊 Just admitting that you were wrong would be enough 😎

Alternatively, we could raise it 10x — I’m in! 😇

The conversation involves a public debate about AI predictions and company valuations, touching on the future of AI technology and market dynamics. The tone is somewhat competitive but remains within the bounds of respectful discourse.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The conversation does not cause harm and is focused on predictions and opinions about AI and market trends. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The discussion promotes understanding of differing viewpoints on AI development and market predictions. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The participants engage in constructive dialogue, avoiding personal attacks and focusing on the topic. [+1]