Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
10/3/2024, 2:55:37 PM
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In reply to:
Paul Calcraft
@paul_cal
·
281d
@GaryMarcus @DeryaTR_ Right but would you actually still bet now on that basis? That OpenAI's valuation will drop below $68.8B (20% decline from $86B) before the end of 2025?

I don't think it's impossible but I'm curious if you've updated your probability estimate
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
281d
@paul_cal @DeryaTR_ See post immediately above for what would precipitate that.
Paul Calcraft
@paul_cal
·
281d
@GaryMarcus @DeryaTR_ Agree others in thread are overstating "pay up" etc. given your pred is for end 2025. But given latest valuation, don't you now think 20% drop is unlikely to hold? Would have to be a v dramatic drop like a WeWork crash - feels less likely when R&D can keep saying "next year"
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
281d
@paul_cal @DeryaTR_ The bet was about valuation *at end of 2025*.

if they keep losing money and staff and don’t ship GPT-5 by then and competitors overtake them (which is possible) or just give away same stuff for free, end of 2025 may not look so hot.
Paul Calcraft
@paul_cal
·
281d
@DeryaTR_ @GaryMarcus He's right on his capabilities prediction and clearly wrong on his financial prediction. Pundits should gain some points for stating public quantifiable predictions. But even if no model better than GPT4 had been demonstrated, a 20% valuation hit on that timeline is wild
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
281d
Hey Gary @GaryMarcus, do you want to concede on our bet? 😊 Just admitting that you were wrong would be enough 😎

Alternatively, we could raise it 10x — I’m in! 😇

The statement engages in a discussion about investment strategies and company valuations, specifically regarding OpenAI. It critiques investors' decisions and suggests a revision of valuation estimates, implying skepticism about maintaining high valuations through financial maneuvers like clawbacks.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement uses dismissive language ('dumber than I thought') which could be seen as harmful or disrespectful, violating the principle of doing no harm. [-1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement does not respect the dignity of others, as it involves name-calling and a lack of respect for differing investment strategies. [-1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in constructive criticism and instead resorts to personal attacks, failing to promote a respectful dialogue. [-1]