Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
12/21/2024, 3:08:24 PM
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In reply to:
Jay Jakosky
@jayjakosky
·
202d
@GaryMarcus Like I said, when they speak and not him, it’s worth your attention.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
202d
@jayjakosky haven’t elon’s erroneous prognostications derived from conversations from them?

autonomy will not be reliably solved in 2025
Jay Jakosky
@jayjakosky
·
202d
@GaryMarcus When Tesla engineers speak, it’s been very accurate. So yes.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
202d
@jayjakosky omg you are going to take a promise from Tesla as data?
Jay Jakosky
@jayjakosky
·
202d
@GaryMarcus Tesla’s engineers are saying that autonomy will fall this year.

“Novel game” is a great goal for inference compute.

Movie summary seems analogous to what Grok does with X posts.

We lack off road training data, otherwise doable with autonomy AI.

Most others do seem unlikely.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
202d
Some AGI-relevant predictions I made publicly long before o3 about what AI could not do by the end of 2025.

Do you seriously think o3-enhanced AI will solve any of them in next 12.5 months?

The statement is part of a discussion on the reliability of predictions about AI and autonomy, specifically regarding Tesla engineers' statements. It questions the public availability and credibility of these statements, contributing to a broader debate on AI capabilities and timelines.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a constructive dialogue about AI predictions. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by questioning the credibility of sources, without personal attacks. [+1]