Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 83
12/22/2024, 4:14:07 AM
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In reply to:
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
387d
@GaryMarcus @metaculus Again, I want to focus on just non-physical stuff (I'm already being "generous" in the 95% odds + 80% threshold, and not quibbling about e.g. the 10k lines of code thing which as I noted years ago, is a superhuman bar, and the Nobel thing etc. are all quite high).
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
387d
@Miles_Brundage @metaculus 2022: https://garymarcus.substack.com/…

2024: https://garymarcus.substack.com/… (bit high on robotics because Elon was emphasizing)

My view is that you should not entirely discount the physical, because one thing ordinary people can learn to do very quickly is teleop robots, and another is to…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
387d
@Miles_Brundage @metaculus My two lists are in the two bets I offered Elon and will paste links later, for clarity.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
387d
@Miles_Brundage @metaculus My list is a lot narrower than what you said above, you realize?

But good man for mostly standing behind what you say, and I accept.
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
387d
@GaryMarcus @metaculus I don't feel comfortable with such large amounts of money for various reasons (namely it just feels obscene given all the good we can do with our $). But sure, I'll take those odds.

Let's say:
- $1k vs. $19k
- List of benchmarks that you have previously articulated, minus…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
387d
What odds will give you me on that @Miles_Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k?

Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans?

Can we put this on @metaculus?

The statement is part of a public discourse on the topic of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and its expected timeline, involving a discussion between public figures and experts in the field. The tone is respectful and open to dialogue, indicating a willingness to engage constructively and consider different viewpoints.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does no harm and maintains a respectful tone, indicating a commitment to constructive dialogue. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding and empathy by expressing appreciation for the reasonable exchange and showing willingness to consider others' comments. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism and dialogue, showing openness to different perspectives without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]