Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47

Score 83

@peterevoss as i know you would agree, we need a much better bridge between black boxes and explicit knowledge. we will see how long it takes.

but i would agree that it is probably possible with current hardware.

12/24/2024, 5:40:30 PM

In reply to:

Peter Voss

@peterevoss

398d

@GaryMarcus I think there's good evidence that AGI is much less than 10 years away -- given the right approach.

The amazing abilities of LLMs running on single off-the-shelf computers (for inference) provide support to the idea that hardware is not likely to be a limitation now or in the…

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

398d

Mark my words: when AGI does actually come, perhaps 10 or 20 years from now, people will laugh at the idea that o3 was close to AGI.

Mikel Bober-Irizar

@mikb0b

401d

You've seen some of the puzzles o3 failed, but have you seen the attempts?

Yesterday, @OpenAI's o3 dramatically beat the SOTA at @arcprize. But there were 34 tasks that even it couldn't solve with 16 hours of thinking.

I've compiled and analyzed all of o3's mistakes below 🧵

The statement engages in a technical discussion about the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the challenges of bridging 'black boxes' and explicit knowledge. It reflects on the feasibility of achieving AGI with current hardware, contributing to the broader debate on AI development timelines and methodologies.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does no harm and is focused on a technical discussion. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
It promotes understanding by discussing the need for better integration between AI components. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
Engages constructively with previous comments, adding to the dialogue without personal attacks. [+1]