Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 11:58:49 AM
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In reply to:
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Thank you for the correction. Sorry for misinterpreting the odds as reflecting your beliefs.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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394d
@boazbaraktcs @Miles_Brundage Absent the context of commonly made strong statements, I would have definitely taken less lopsided odds. (In fact I already insisted we make them a bit less lopsided, again my own interest.) But I was pleased to get the zeitgeist on record.

I think even the easier tasks are…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
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394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Sorry. I assumed that bets by default are even odds, and so if you chose these lopsided odds it meant you are not confident in the failure of this very strong claim. But if the odds reflect only @Miles_Brundage’s beliefs and you would have taken it even if the odds were inverted…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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394d
@boazbaraktcs @Miles_Brundage This is disappointing coming from you and lacks context. Did you read the newsletter and the essays that it pointed to? The bet is an implementation a strong claim that Brundage made, and similar claims that Musk made.

I asked if he would put money on his words and he did. It…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
That is, if AI fails to do one of Pulitzer/Oscar/Nobel works then @Miles_Brundage loses the bet, which is 1:10 odds in @GaryMarcus’ favor.
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
This is what passes for AI skepticism in 2024: bet against AI doing one of Pulitzer / Oscar / Nobel quality work by 2027, and do this at 1:10 odds.

The statement is part of a public discourse involving a discussion on AI capabilities and skepticism, specifically regarding a bet on AI achieving certain milestones. The tone is positive and appreciative, acknowledging a participant's willingness to update their beliefs.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding and empathy by acknowledging and appreciating the willingness to update beliefs, which fosters a positive dialogue. [+1]
  2. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    The statement implicitly acknowledges a correction of a previous misunderstanding, aligning with the principle of acknowledging and correcting mistakes. [+1]