Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 2:33:12 PM
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In reply to:
sarah
@littIeramblings
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394d
@LudwigBald @GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage It's the opposite right? Miles is way more confident than gary
Ludwig Bald
@LudwigBald
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395d
@littIeramblings @GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage I wasn't completely correct: they don't _agree_ on 90% probability, otherwise it wouldn't make sense for them to bet.

Gary thinks he's >90.9% to win, and Miles merely thinks he's >9.1% to win.

They both think they're more correct about their assessment of the probability.
sarah
@littIeramblings
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395d
@LudwigBald @GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage wait I didn’t realise this, why did they set it up that way?
Ludwig Bald
@LudwigBald
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395d
@littIeramblings @GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Because it's a 10:1 bet, they agree that AI will probably not meet the criteria. They agreed on a ~90% implied probability of Gary winning.
sarah
@littIeramblings
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395d
who will win the @GaryMarcus vs @Miles_Brundage bet

The statement is part of a conversational thread discussing a bet between public figures regarding AI predictions. It does not substantively engage with public issues or contribute to civic dialogue, as it focuses on the personal confidence levels of the individuals involved in the bet rather than broader societal implications.