Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47

Score 83

@RyanPGreenblatt and indeed the very last link in the longer Marcus on AI substack newsletter article that list is drawn from is to exactly that :)

1/1/2025, 10:55:47 PM

In reply to:

Ryan Greenblatt

@RyanPGreenblatt

397d

@GaryMarcus It might be useful to make numerical predictions about AI company revenue? Ideally, OpenAI+Anthropic+xAI revenue. More generally filling out this would be great:

Sage

@sage_future_

424d

Is AGI just around the corner or is AI scaling hitting a wall? To make this discourse more concrete, we’ve created a survey for forecasting concrete AI capabilities by the end of 2025. Fill it out and share your predictions by end of year! https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-… 🧵

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

397d

𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

With high confidence:
1. We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.

2. No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027…

The statement is part of a public discourse on AI predictions and revenue forecasting. It engages with ongoing discussions about AI capabilities and economic impacts, referencing a newsletter and survey for further exploration.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does no harm and contributes to a constructive discussion about AI. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
It promotes understanding by linking to resources that provide more information on AI predictions. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
Engages in constructive dialogue by building on previous comments and suggesting further exploration. [+1]