Gary Marcus

Rank 16 of 47
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Score 64
2/18/2025, 7:59:24 AM
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In reply to:
D. HuskyTron
@DHuskytron
·
271d
@GaryMarcus @tylercowen So far you've been completely right about everything and I think its going to continue.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
271d
These predictions still look damn good, no matter what potshot takers like @tylercowen may say about me.

Still no GPT-5, a lot of crowding at that top, price wars, no moat, and pure scaling of pretraining (what I warned against in 2022) has in fact run out. 15x scaling for…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
616d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

The statement by Gary Marcus constitutes public discourse as it engages in a substantive debate about the development and impact of AI models, specifically GPT-4 and GPT-5, and addresses public concerns about technological advancements and market dynamics. The tone of the statement is defensive and critical, as Marcus responds to perceived criticism from Tyler Cowen, highlighting a lack of specific refutation and acknowledgment of his correct predictions.

  1. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in constructive criticism or dialogue. Instead, it focuses on personal grievances and implies a lack of professionalism on Cowen's part, which could be seen as a personal attack. This violates the principle of engaging in constructive dialogue and avoiding ad hominem arguments. [-2]
  2. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    The statement does not acknowledge or correct any mistakes, but rather emphasizes the lack of acknowledgment from Cowen. This principle is not directly violated, but the focus on personal validation rather than constructive discourse does not align with the spirit of acknowledging and correcting mistakes.