Gary Marcus

Rank 20 of 47
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Score 39
2/18/2025, 8:18:40 AM
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In reply to:
lovahboy222
@Lordcostanza
·
271d
@GaryMarcus @tylercowen Any end of 2025 predictions?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
271d
These predictions still look damn good, no matter what potshot takers like @tylercowen may say about me.

Still no GPT-5, a lot of crowding at that top, price wars, no moat, and pure scaling of pretraining (what I warned against in 2022) has in fact run out. 15x scaling for…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
616d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

The statement is part of a public discourse as it engages with ongoing discussions about the future of AI, referencing predictions and analyses by experts in the field. The tone is informative and aims to contribute to the dialogue on AI development and its implications.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does no harm as it neutrally shares a link to a relevant article, contributing to informed discussion. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    By sharing expert predictions, the statement promotes understanding and awareness of potential future developments in AI. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments, maintaining a focus on the content of the predictions. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech by responsibly sharing information that contributes to public understanding of AI issues. [+1]