Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
|
Score 64
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
483d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
2/27/2025, 8:54:14 PM
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In reply to:
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
129d
Hot take: GPT 4.5 is mostly a nothing burger. GPT 5 is still a fantasy.

• Scaling data and compute is not a physical law, and pretty much everything I have told you was true.

• All the bullshit about GPT-5 we listened to for the last couple years: not so true.

• People…
Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland
·
129d
And now I lengthen my timelines, at least if my preliminary assessment of GPT-4.5 holds up. Not that much better than 4o (especially at coding, and worse than Sonnet at coding) while being 15x more expensive than 4o, and 10-25x more expensive than Sonnet 3.7. Weird.

The statement 'this, almost a year to the day, was 🔥, absolute 🔥' is a subjective expression of enthusiasm or agreement with the preceding conversation about AI models. It does not engage substantively with the public issues or debates presented in the conversation, such as the development and performance of AI models, their costs, or their implications for the future of AI research and development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm but lacks substantive engagement with the issues discussed.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not promote understanding or empathy as it is more of an expression of excitement rather than a constructive contribution to the discussion.