Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
|
Score 83
3/8/2025, 3:13:33 AM
X
In reply to:
MindMirror
@TheMysteryDrop
·
312d
@GaryMarcus @tegmark I agree that going from 0 sub-Novel discoveries to infinite nobel-worthy discoveries overnight is nonsensical but I think that’s a strawman of what’s being predicted here.

We’ve got almost 2 years until 2027, so this prediction permits sub-Nobel discoveries before 2027.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
312d
@TheMysteryDrop @tegmark i would expect many original sub-Nobel but still original discoveries long before the first Nobel grade discovery.
MindMirror
@TheMysteryDrop
·
312d
@GaryMarcus @tegmark Doesn’t it make sense that scientific contributions will be discontinuous (i.e. 0 Nobel-worthy discoveries until a threshold is crossed, at which point many become possible?)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
312d
@tegmark Sorry @tegmark, with all due respect, I think that it is you that is mistaken.

Black box AI is not going (on its own) going to make original Nobel quality discoveries any time soon.

Roughly speaking, Dario is making an extrapolation that looks like this:
Max Tegmark
@tegmark
·
313d
Most of my MIT colleagues are in denial of this coming tsunami
Chubby♨️
@kimmonismus
·
314d
Anthropic: Intellectual AI capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines—including biology, computer science, mathematics, and engineering by 2026-2027

"Our own recent work adds further evidence to the idea that powerful AI will arrive…

The statement is part of a public discourse on the potential of AI to make significant scientific discoveries. It engages in a debate about the timeline and nature of AI advancements, specifically regarding Nobel-worthy discoveries. The offer to place a public bet suggests a willingness to engage in a measurable and accountable way, which can foster constructive dialogue.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a reasoned debate. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by engaging in a public bet, which can clarify differing viewpoints. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue without personal attacks. [+1]