Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47

Score 83

Reposted by Gary Marcus

Great thread on reasons to expect transformative AI to take ~20 years to arrive.
My own view is that this is extremely difficult to predict and that we must take a wide range of timelines seriously.

Epoch AI

@EpochAIResearch

264d

In this week's Gradient Updates issue, @EgeErdil2 argues that transformative AI is likely still decades away, with a median estimate of ~ 20 years until full remote work automation – a view that contrasts with the much shorter timelines commonly predicted in the AI community.

4/28/2025, 9:10:38 AM

The statement engages in public discourse by discussing the timeline for transformative AI, a significant societal and technological issue. It presents a viewpoint that emphasizes the uncertainty and variability in predicting AI advancements, encouraging consideration of diverse perspectives.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does no harm and encourages a balanced view on AI timelines, promoting careful consideration. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
It promotes understanding by acknowledging the complexity of predicting AI development and the need for diverse perspectives. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages constructively with differing opinions, suggesting a wide range of timelines should be considered. [+1]