Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 83
4/30/2025, 1:08:38 AM
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In reply to:
MindMirror
@TheMysteryDrop
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257d
@GaryMarcus @samuelaxon Given that (1) Sonnet 3.7 is at 48% success on this metric today, (2) and tool use is shown to provide a critical boost, and (3) new models like O3 are great at tool use, why would you be bearish on the capabilities in 12-18 months?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
257d
@TheMysteryDrop The debugging part of this is seriously implausible, see eg https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/… by @samuelaxon, discussing a recent Microsoft study
MindMirror
@TheMysteryDrop
·
257d
@GaryMarcus Google is >25% today. Why is 50%+ within 12-18 months a stretch?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
257d
I call bullshit. But nobody will ever hold Zuck (or Dwarkesh) responsible, if this is turns out to be wrong like so many previous overhyped predictions.
Haider.
@slow_developer
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257d
Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg:

"within 12-18 months, most of the code is written by AI"

It won’t just be autocomplete.

AI agents will set goals, run tests, find problems, and write better code than top engineers.

The statement discusses the progress and challenges of AI technology, specifically in driverless cars, in response to a conversation about AI's capabilities in coding and debugging. It highlights the difficulty of achieving the final stages of technological development, suggesting a realistic perspective on AI advancements.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does no harm and provides a realistic view of technological progress. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It promotes understanding by acknowledging the challenges in AI development. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    Engages constructively by adding a historical perspective to the discussion. [+1]