Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
5/10/2025, 12:57:09 AM
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In reply to:
Cameron Williams
@Wasgo
·
55d
@GaryMarcus @littmath @polynoamial Scaling law is a pure mathematical endeavour and performance isn’t pure math. They’re separate targets.
Cameron Williams
@Wasgo
·
55d
@GaryMarcus @littmath @polynoamial Even this post notes it’s not performance scaling:

“…test loss is not an easily interpretable metric and try to predict a variety of other performance metrics. For example, a scaling law is fit to predict the LLM’s pass rate on the HumanEval coding benchmark.”
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
55d
@Wasgo @littmath @polynoamial This is perhaps a good review of the various claims that have been made

https://cameronrwolfe.substack.c…
Cameron Williams
@Wasgo
·
55d
@littmath @GaryMarcus @polynoamial There’s two entirely different meanings of AI scaling laws. OpenAI covers theirs in their papers and it’s not about model performance, it’s about fitting vs overfitting. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361

The general public talk about scaling laws as performance and there’s no definition.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
55d
@GaryMarcus @polynoamial I’m not sure I understand. Is the claim that scaling laws were predicting faster than logarithmic returns to scale, or that actual returns to scale are slower than logarithmic?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
55d
@littmath @polynoamial as i understand it the “chinchilla laws” no longer hold, and people no longer got the return for increases in compute and data that they were expecting per those alleged laws (but instead got diminishing though non zero returns).

The statement is part of a technical discussion on AI scaling laws, specifically addressing the expectations and outcomes of investments in AI research. It engages with public issues related to AI development and its implications, thus constituting public discourse.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not use harmful language and maintains a neutral tone, adhering to the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement attempts to clarify misunderstandings and promote understanding about the expectations of AI scaling laws, aligning with the principle of promoting understanding. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing specific points in the conversation without resorting to personal attacks, adhering to the principle of constructive criticism. [+1]