Gary Marcus

Rank 21 of 47
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Score 47
5/10/2025, 1:59:40 AM
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In reply to:
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
28d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial @waitbutwhy Ok, but I agree with you that it’s silly. So why are we arguing about it? Your original post was about scaling laws, and all of my responses have been about trying to understand what claim was being made. That graph isn’t relevant—not sure why you’re bringing it up.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
28d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial And yet @waitbutwhy’s post got 26 million views, probably more than everything I have posted in the last 2 years put together, and a lot of government policy and investments and philanthropic contributions are predicated on it being roughly true.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
28d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I think it’s a stupid graph. Not sure why you’re asking me to comment on dumb ai hype when I’m discussing a specific (if slightly imprecise) claim about scaling.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
28d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial So where do you fall here?
Vlad Haltakov
@haltakov
·
29d
Unpopular opinion - we are not seeing exponential growth in AI, but rather something more like an S-curve.

While an S-curve has places that look exponential it doesn't go on forever, but saturates. This is what we see with foundational models already.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
28d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I was out here pointing out it was BS.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
28d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial Where were you when 1000s of influencers a day were chanting “exponential”?

The conversation revolves around the interpretation and implications of AI scaling laws, particularly in relation to public understanding and policy influence. The discussion critiques the representation of AI growth as exponential, suggesting it may be more accurately depicted as an S-curve. The tone is analytical and somewhat critical, focusing on the accuracy and impact of popular narratives about AI.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm but rather seeks to clarify misconceptions about AI scaling laws. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by addressing how scaling laws are publicly framed and understood. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by questioning the relevance and accuracy of the graph in the context of the discussion. [+1]