Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 83
5/18/2025, 4:02:14 AM
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In reply to:
FeltSteam0
@FeltSteam
·
245d
@GaryMarcus @flowersslop I mean why expect any time too much shorter than the gap between GPT-3 to GPT-4? That was 33 months, if OAI followed that same schedule then GPT-5 should release around December 2025, ~33 months after GPT-4 to keep things consistent lol.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
245d
@flowersslop So I have been told – for almost two years.
Flowers
@flowersslop
·
245d
@GaryMarcus soon enough
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
245d
@flowersslop GPT-5 doesn’t exist :)
Flowers
@flowersslop
·
245d
@GaryMarcus I’m not calling GPT-5 a breakthrough, nor dismissing it. Just saying: it’s built on models we haven’t seen yet. pretraining is, after all, still very much alive. But some have speculated it is just the current models with some clever autorouting and THAT is not the case.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
245d
!!!

If this true, it’s compelling evidence that pure pretraining scaling of LLMs has failed, and that that particular approach (which was I specifically said would hit a wall) has failed.

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the development and release timeline of AI models, specifically GPT-5, and the challenges faced by companies in this field. It engages with public discourse by addressing the competitive landscape and financial challenges in AI development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not use harmful language and maintains a neutral tone, adhering to the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, but it does provide context about the competitive and financial challenges in AI development.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by providing factual information about the competitive landscape, without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech and uses the platform to contribute to a public discussion on AI development responsibly. [+1]