Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
5/18/2025, 9:34:41 PM
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In reply to:
John W. Ratcliff
@jratcliff
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251d
@FrankRundatz @GaryMarcus Well,. people in the field disagree with you and, my point, is that it's already highly disruptive as is.
Frank Rundatz
@FrankRundatz
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251d
@jratcliff @GaryMarcus My thinking is that LLMs are not AGI, they are not close to AGI and they are not on the road to AGI.

The analogy I like to use about LLMs is people are looking at their growth rate from birth to 16 years old and thinking they’ll be 40 feet tall by the time they’re 50 years old.
John W. Ratcliff
@jratcliff
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251d
@FrankRundatz @GaryMarcus So, your thinking is that AGI isn't going to happen in our lifetimes, or anytime soon?

My concern comes from the fact that the current state of AI is already good enough to cause obscene amounts of disruption. I'll give you just one example. When you go to school and you get a
Frank Rundatz
@FrankRundatz
·
251d
@jratcliff Follow @GaryMarcus for the real state of AI.

The people trying to convince us all that AGI is right around the corner are the same ones hoping to profit from our belief that AGI is right around the corner.
John W. Ratcliff
@jratcliff
·
251d
I’ve lived my entire life under the shadow of apocalypse.

From the moment I was born, a full-scale nuclear exchange has been a very real possibility. The world could end in under an hour. No warning. No survival. And there’s absolutely nothing I can do about it. I have no https://x.com/jratcliff/status/1…

The statement is part of a public discourse on the development and impact of AI, specifically AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). It presents a skeptical view on the imminence of AGI, suggesting that current AI technologies are disruptive but not close to achieving AGI. The tone is assertive and aims to provide a counterpoint to more optimistic views on AGI development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and contributes to a balanced discussion on AI development. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It promotes understanding by providing a reasoned argument against the imminent arrival of AGI. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing differing opinions without personal attacks. [+1]