Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
5/22/2025, 3:19:38 AM
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In reply to:
Zjoue
@Zjoue2
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259d
@GaryMarcus I think it’s a fair point that there have been ridiculous claims in the other direction - Elon on full self driving year after year etc. I think my critique of AI 2027 paper would be that it’s probably early by a decade or more but not necessarily completely impossible.
Zjoue
@Zjoue2
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259d
@GaryMarcus IJ Good thought Go would be far harder to crack than chess in 1965 and was correct. In 1983 the Go programmes were at novice level, 35 years later and there’s no contest, and AlphaZero based on no gameplay beats AlphaGo which was trained on all elite human gameplay.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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259d
@Zjoue2 citation? so far you gave me one chessplayer, no AI researchers, in a single quote from 36 years ago.

i’ve seen much more ridiculousness in the opposite direction, much more recently, re radiology, driving, superhuman intelligence etc
Zjoue
@Zjoue2
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259d
@GaryMarcus Regarding Go, most AI experts thought in the 90s it would take till 2100 to beat the worlds best humans, achieved in 2016.
Zjoue
@Zjoue2
·
259d
@GaryMarcus No obviously those are historical - 1989 Kasparov: “Ridiculous! A machine will always remain a machine, that is to say a tool to help the player work and prepare. Never shall I be beaten by a machine. … Can you see a machine writing a novel or poetry?”
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
259d
@Zjoue2 I would love quotes on the first few if real. I never said any of those myself.

The statement is part of a broader discussion on AI development and its historical predictions, which constitutes public discourse as it engages with public issues related to technology and its societal implications.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is a neutral agreement with a previous point, adhering to the principle. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, but it does not detract from it either.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement is part of a constructive dialogue, agreeing with a point made in a discussion without engaging in personal attacks. [+1]