Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 83
5/30/2025, 2:14:04 AM
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In reply to:
Dukakis Gaming
@RealDukakisism
·
235d
@GaryMarcus You mean this short post about Elon claiming there will be AGI within a year? How does that affect your more expansive claims and shorter timeline in your bet with Miles?

https://garymarcus.substack.com/…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
235d
@RealDukakisism The shift reflected Elon’s stronger claims as noted in the second (2024) bet w Elon, which you didn’t link
Dukakis Gaming
@RealDukakisism
·
235d
@GaryMarcus First image is your proposed bet with Elon, from your post from May 2022. Second and third images are your bet with Miles Brundage from December 2024.

Note the new, superhuman challenges and the shift in timing.

https://garymarcus.substack.com/…

https://garymarcus.substack.com/…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
235d
𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘰𝘳, 𝘮𝘺 𝘨𝘰𝘢𝘭𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘥.

Wake me up if any or all of the longstanding problems I list below is actually solved.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
241d
If the leaders of the major AI companies (not mention “AI influencers” and boosters in the major media) were intellectually honest they would admit that a half of trillion dollars investment in GenAI and its infrastructure

• has not solved the alignment problem
• has not

The statement engages in a discussion about AI development timelines and claims made by public figures, specifically Elon Musk. It questions the implications of these claims on existing bets and predictions about AGI, contributing to the broader discourse on AI progress and expectations.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a broader debate on AI timelines. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It promotes understanding by questioning and clarifying claims about AI development. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by questioning claims without personal attacks. [+1]