Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
|
Score 83
5/30/2025, 11:34:36 PM
X
In reply to:
Quote Investigator®
@QuoteResearch
·
232d
@slow_developer @GaryMarcus Fascinating 2019 survey of AI experts by Baobao Zhang et al:

When will machines collectively be able to perform more than 90% of all tasks that are economically relevant better than the median human?

Only half of experts gave a date before 2060

More:
https://ourworldindata.org/ai-ti…
Haider.
@slow_developer
·
232d
@GaryMarcus gary, you must listen to Ray Kurzweil's interview from about 6 months ago

ray said i'm the only one who predicted AGI by 2029, while all the other scientists in the room, including geoff hinton, believe it’s not possible this century
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
232d
For 70 years hypsters have said AGI was 20 years away.

The first sentence of this is just totally made up.
Haider.
@slow_developer
·
232d
everyone thought we would achieve AGI after 2050, and some scientists believed it would happen in the next century

but look where we are now.

nobody expected things to move this fast.

AI is advancing way ahead of schedule

The statement 'Only half is hardly “nobody”' is a response to a discussion about the timeline for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). It challenges the claim that 'nobody expected things to move this fast' by pointing out that half of the experts surveyed did provide a date before 2060. This engagement is part of a broader public discourse on AI development timelines, a significant societal issue.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is a factual correction, aligning with the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by providing a factual correction, which can lead to a more informed discussion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing a specific point in the conversation without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]