Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 83
6/2/2025, 10:34:43 PM
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In reply to:
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
224d
Folks please stop taking the wildly popular METR doubling graph seriously.

The y-axis is muddled, and at best the graph speaks to coding, not all human tasks in general.

Comments like one the below extrapolate wildly beyond what the graph actually shows, as explained in my
Rob Wiblin
@robertwiblin
·
224d
AI models currently have a 50% chance of doing something that takes a human expert one hour.

This doubles every 7 months.

In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month.

I discuss the most important graph in AI today with Beth Barnes, the CEO of METR,

The statement critiques the interpretation of a popular AI scaling graph, questioning its validity and the conclusions drawn from it. It aims to promote a more accurate understanding of the graph's implications.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement strives to do no harm by encouraging critical thinking and caution against overinterpretation. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It promotes understanding by clarifying misconceptions about the graph's implications. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    Engages in constructive criticism by addressing specific issues with the graph and its interpretations without personal attacks. [+1]