Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
6/15/2025, 5:44:31 AM
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In reply to:
Guy Herbert
@guy_herbert
·
23d
@GaryMarcus Hm. Tech adoption tends to be more exponential than linear. One of my ex-clients was a futurist who wrote a book predicting that eventually 200-400M people might have internet access. We'd already reached that point by the time it was published.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
23d
what would you expect autonomous driving to look like two years before full level-5 self driving was achieved?

my guess is that you would have level-4 self driving with relatively little geofencing in most major cities by then? (we aren’t close to that)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
23d
What would you expect AI to look like 2 years before we achieved AGI? What would you expect AI be able to do at AGI-2? not be able to do then? what would those final two years of AGI development look like?

i give one possible answer below.

The statement is part of a broader discussion on technological advancements, specifically focusing on AI and autonomous driving. The conversation involves predictions and expectations about the development and adoption of these technologies, which are public issues due to their societal impact.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is focused on clarifying a point about technological capabilities rather than adoption, adhering to the principle. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement aims to clarify a misunderstanding, which can promote understanding and empathy in the discussion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing a specific point without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]