Gary Marcus

Rank 10 of 47
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Score 114
6/15/2025, 1:23:55 PM
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In reply to:
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
32d
@GaryMarcus @ChrisPainterYup If the model can actually learn as fast as a human, I would expect it to be running 24/7, massively in parallel, hence far faster than human speeds.
And I tried to explain the latter point below; we could have broad superintelligence with slower learning.
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
32d
@GaryMarcus @ChrisPainterYup That is, it seems possible that "learning new things efficiently" is enough harder than "learning new things via large generated samples and iterated reasoning over sub-human capacities for image understanding" that the latter class of model bootstraps to superintelligence.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
32d
@davidmanheim @ChrisPainterYup 1. to clarify, that quote is from ryan not me.
2. weeks? seriously?
3. i don’t understand your last sentence, and wonder whether there is a typo.
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
32d
@GaryMarcus @ChrisPainterYup I'd also love to hear a response on this; I don't understand the model where "can learn with sample efficiency and speed of 10 year old" is more than ~weeks before strongly superhuman AI, and it's entirely plausible it happens after hitting superhuman capabilities instead.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
32d
@ChrisPainterYup i just posed a lot of questions and nay respond further tomorrow
Chris Painter
@ChrisPainterYup
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33d
@GaryMarcus I’d be interested in your reaction to this critique of your criteria, especially the first point Ryan makes:
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanPGreenblatt
·
33d
If AIs could learn as efficiently as a bright 10 year old child, then shortly after this point AIs would likely be generally superhuman via learning on more data and compute than a human can.

So, I don't expect human level learning and sample efficiency until very powerful AI.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
33d
If we were 2 years from some kind of singularity-like AGI, I would expect current AI to be able to

• (minimally) do essentially anything cognitive that a bright 10 year child could do, such as understand movies, acquire the basics of new skills quickly, learn complex,

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the development and implications of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is a significant public issue. The tone is analytical and speculative, focusing on the theoretical aspects of AGI development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not use harmful language and maintains a neutral tone, adhering to the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement contributes to understanding by engaging in a theoretical discussion about AGI, promoting intellectual exploration and consideration of different viewpoints. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing the theoretical aspects of AGI without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]