Gary Marcus

Rank 10 of 47
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Score 118
6/15/2025, 2:23:26 PM
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In reply to:
Simone Romeo
@simone_m_romeo
·
34d
@GaryMarcus Think of 5 specific measurable errors that you believe can't be solved by today's LLMs. Tell us 3, and let's bet on @ManifoldMarkets if:
- these 3 will be solved within 2 years
- your additional secret 2 will be solved within 2 years
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
34d
1. What would convince me to shorten my AGI timelines? robust, principled solutions to things like hallucinations and stupid errors.

2. What would convince doomers to extend their timelines? As far as I can tell, nothing. (Prove me wrong?)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
34d
When you can solve this problem (& related problems of hallucination and poor planning, etc) maybe you can get to AGI quickly.

But I see no robust solution to any of these problems on the immediate horizon.

If you project AGI soon, and have no solution to these problems, you

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the limitations and future potential of large language models (LLMs) and artificial general intelligence (AGI). It engages with public discourse by addressing the challenges and skepticism surrounding AI development, particularly in solving errors and hallucinations in AI outputs.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a constructive dialogue about AI development. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It promotes understanding by engaging in a discussion about the potential and limitations of AI. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement is part of a constructive exchange, inviting further dialogue and exploration of ideas. [+1]