Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 115
6/15/2025, 3:36:15 PM
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In reply to:
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanPGreenblatt
·
52d
@GaryMarcus No, see the prior 2 bullets for other things that would cause me to update.

I was just listing some of the things that would cause me to update (as you claimed that nothing would cause update), of course in practice there are many types of observations that would cause updates.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
52d
@RyanPGreenblatt but wait, you aren’t really going to slow your timelines that say AGI is fairly like to arrive in next few years until 2032 arrives?
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanPGreenblatt
·
52d
@GaryMarcus Sure, listing things that would cause me to extend my timelines:

- Progress on completing longer (in human equivalent duration) software engineering tasks slows down either in benchmarks or possibly in real world usefulness. Or generally progress on software engineering/
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
52d
1. What would convince me to shorten my AGI timelines? robust, principled solutions to things like hallucinations and stupid errors.

2. What would convince doomers to extend their timelines? As far as I can tell, nothing. (Prove me wrong?)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
52d
When you can solve this problem (& related problems of hallucination and poor planning, etc) maybe you can get to AGI quickly.

But I see no robust solution to any of these problems on the immediate horizon.

If you project AGI soon, and have no solution to these problems, you

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the development and expectations of AI models, specifically addressing the performance and timelines related to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). The tone is analytical and seeks to clarify previous overstatements while engaging in a technical debate about AI progress.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm and is focused on discussing technical aspects of AI development. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement aims to promote understanding by clarifying previous overstatements and discussing the performance of AI models. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing previous points and providing additional context without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    The statement acknowledges a previous overstatement, which aligns with the principle of acknowledging and correcting mistakes. [+1]