Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 114
6/15/2025, 3:37:14 PM
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In reply to:
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanPGreenblatt
·
55d
@GaryMarcus I agree it's pretty likely that many/some people will say this, but you said something stronger than "many people will keep saying this".
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
55d
@RyanPGreenblatt my guess btw is that many people will keep saying AGI is two years away every year from now until when it is actually achieved, literally no matter what happens.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
56d
@RyanPGreenblatt but wait, you aren’t really going to slow your timelines that say AGI is fairly like to arrive in next few years until 2032 arrives?
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanPGreenblatt
·
56d
@GaryMarcus Sure, listing things that would cause me to extend my timelines:

- Progress on completing longer (in human equivalent duration) software engineering tasks slows down either in benchmarks or possibly in real world usefulness. Or generally progress on software engineering/
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
56d
1. What would convince me to shorten my AGI timelines? robust, principled solutions to things like hallucinations and stupid errors.

2. What would convince doomers to extend their timelines? As far as I can tell, nothing. (Prove me wrong?)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
56d
When you can solve this problem (& related problems of hallucination and poor planning, etc) maybe you can get to AGI quickly.

But I see no robust solution to any of these problems on the immediate horizon.

If you project AGI soon, and have no solution to these problems, you

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the timelines and challenges associated with achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It engages with public discourse by addressing a significant technological and societal issue, namely the development and implications of AGI.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions. It is part of a technical discussion and does not include harmful language. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement contributes to understanding by engaging in a dialogue about AGI timelines and risks, although it could be more explicit in promoting empathy and compassion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism and dialogue, as it is part of a back-and-forth discussion about AGI timelines without resorting to personal attacks. [+2]