Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
6/17/2025, 6:14:09 PM
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In reply to:
Thomas Larsen
@thlarsen
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21d
@GaryMarcus @DKokotajlo @MechanizeWork Yes
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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21d
@DKokotajlo @thlarsen @MechanizeWork does this include motor control and sensory perception in teleoperating robots?
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo
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21d
@GaryMarcus @thlarsen @MechanizeWork Superintelligence quick definition = better than the best humans at every cognitive task that matters, while also being faster and cheaper.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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21d
@DKokotajlo @thlarsen @MechanizeWork all AI R&D automated: at least a decade, maybe 30 years plus. certainly not three years. note of course the new LiveCodeBenchPro benchmark, which is a reminder that on the frontier that lies beyond data contamination there is still a long long way to go.

How are you defining
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo
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21d
@GaryMarcus @thlarsen @MechanizeWork Thanks! Yeah we'd specifically like to see your predictions for what happens when AIs automate ~all AI R&D, and for what happens when AIs reach superintelligence (and if you like, the various other capability milestones we describe). And, of course, when you think that'll happen.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
21d
@thlarsen @MechanizeWork I did already give a very detailed set of predictions re: 2025: https://garymarcus.substack.com/… (so far I believe all have held strong).

And my currently pinned tweet has some detailed predictions about GPT-4 from my Dec 25, 2022 essay What to Expect when you are expecting GPT- 4 that

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the timeline for AI advancements, specifically regarding superintelligence and the automation of AI R&D. It engages with public issues related to technological development and its implications, thus constituting public discourse.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement expresses an intent to articulate logic soon, which suggests a willingness to promote understanding and engage in thoughtful discussion. This aligns with the principle of promoting understanding, empathy, and compassion. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. It maintains a neutral tone and focuses on the topic of AI development timelines, which aligns with the principle of engaging in constructive criticism and dialogue. [+1]
  3. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement is part of a public discussion on AI, a significant societal issue. It uses the platform to contribute to the dialogue responsibly, aligning with the principle of upholding free speech and using the platform with integrity. [+1]