Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47

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Score 83

+4

@NathanpmYoung @binarybits The bet is simply stated, and hopefully relevant data aren’t too find:

At the end of 2026, I predict that Waymo will have more operating cities with of a population greater than 100,000 that have more than 100,000 paid rides per month.

Right now Waymo is up, with both SF and

6/25/2025, 2:04:32 PM

In reply to:

Nathan 🔎

@NathanpmYoung

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221d

@GaryMarcus @binarybits I’d bet on this, might be a bit tricky to resolve. What is a number of cities you find quite unlikely?

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

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221d

@binarybits @NathanpmYoung yes i was thinking about # of major cities (100k population) with a certain number of weekly paid rides as a better metric.

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

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221d

@GaryMarcus @NathanpmYoung Also Waymo is aiming to be in 10+ cities by the end of 2026, so even if Tesla totally takes over the Houston/Dallas/Austin taxi markets that might not be big enough.

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

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221d

@GaryMarcus @NathanpmYoung I think if Tesla starts having Cruise-type incidents (to say nothing of Uber ATG-type incidents) even Texas regulators are going to flinch.

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

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221d

@binarybits @NathanpmYoung it’s not bad but it is indirect and Musk is in a position to put a lot of pressure on Texas.

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

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221d

@NathanpmYoung @GaryMarcus This is why I think weekly driverless robotaxi rides is a good metric. Regulators won’t tolerate a robotaxi fleet at Waymo’s unless it is reasonably safe.

The statement is part of a broader discussion about the future of autonomous vehicle services, specifically focusing on Waymo's expansion and performance metrics. It engages with public issues related to technology, transportation, and regulatory challenges, thus constituting public discourse.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and is focused on a prediction about Waymo's future operations. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
The statement contributes to understanding by discussing metrics for evaluating autonomous vehicle services. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue by making a prediction and inviting further discussion. [+1]
Principle 7:
I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
The statement uses the platform to discuss a relevant public issue responsibly. [+1]