Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47

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Score 83

+4

@NathanpmYoung @binarybits Deal. And, sure, if it’s a tie I will be impressed enough by Tesla’s progress to resolve in your favor, as long at least one of their cities is not in Texas.

To be settled when we have clear enough data available to be confident of the outcome, ok?

6/25/2025, 2:34:01 PM

In reply to:

Nathan 🔎

@NathanpmYoung

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221d

@GaryMarcus @binarybits We’ll have to do less than that if it’s for charity. I’m not that wealthy.

I’d do $200 though.

What happens in a draw, you’re saying I win?

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

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221d

@NathanpmYoung @binarybits The bet is simply stated, and hopefully relevant data aren’t too find:

At the end of 2026, I predict that Waymo will have more operating cities with of a population greater than 100,000 that have more than 100,000 paid rides per month.

Right now Waymo is up, with both SF and

Nathan 🔎

@NathanpmYoung

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221d

@GaryMarcus @binarybits I’d bet on this, might be a bit tricky to resolve. What is a number of cities you find quite unlikely?

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

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221d

@binarybits @NathanpmYoung yes i was thinking about # of major cities (100k population) with a certain number of weekly paid rides as a better metric.

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

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221d

@GaryMarcus @NathanpmYoung Also Waymo is aiming to be in 10+ cities by the end of 2026, so even if Tesla totally takes over the Houston/Dallas/Austin taxi markets that might not be big enough.

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

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221d

@GaryMarcus @NathanpmYoung I think if Tesla starts having Cruise-type incidents (to say nothing of Uber ATG-type incidents) even Texas regulators are going to flinch.

The statement is part of a conversation about the future of autonomous vehicle companies, specifically Waymo and Tesla, and their expansion into cities. It involves a bet on the outcome of this expansion by 2026, which touches on public discourse related to technological advancements and urban transportation policies.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and is part of a friendly wager, adhering to the principle. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
The statement promotes understanding by engaging in a discussion about the future of autonomous vehicles, which is a relevant public issue. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue without personal attacks, adhering to the principle. [+1]
Principle 7:
I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
The statement upholds free speech and uses the platform responsibly by discussing a public issue. [+1]