Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 2:54:39 PM
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In reply to:
Adrian Kovac
@Iwanttoleat
·
227d
@GaryMarcus Asmodei has a good prediction record he has been saying Agi in the next two to three years for over a decade now.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
prediction: When AGI doesn’t arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
·
227d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is part of a public discourse on the topic of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) predictions, specifically addressing the credibility and track record of individuals making these predictions. The tone is inquisitive, questioning why a particular individual, Amodei, is being viewed charitably in the context of their prediction record.

  1. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by questioning the reasoning behind a charitable view of Amodei's predictions. It does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments, but rather seeks clarification and understanding. [+1]