Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 3:06:48 PM
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In reply to:
Persona non-starter
@mralmolololl
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227d
@GaryMarcus Prediction: in 18 months people will still be arguing about the definition of AGI. At least your Brundage bet is well defined - do you have a sense of how many of the criteria have to fall before you would consider it AGI?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
prediction: When AGI doesn’t arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
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228d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is part of a broader conversation about the timeline and criteria for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a significant public issue in the field of technology and ethics. The tone is analytical and aims to contribute to the discussion by referencing an essay that presumably provides criteria and historical context for defining AGI.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by referencing an essay that presumably provides criteria and historical context, which can help clarify the debate around AGI. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by responding to a question about criteria for AGI, without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  3. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly by contributing substantively to the discussion on AGI. [+1]