Gary Marcus

Rank 23 of 47
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Score 47
6/28/2025, 9:10:50 PM
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In reply to:
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
53d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka Or maybe he’s referring to the 2022 proposed bet with Elon? That one’s not looking so hot according to prediction markets, but maybe you disagree about the operationalization:

https://www.metaculus.com/questi…
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
53d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka While I think your specific predictions have been above average, I do think people would’ve been quite wrong about how AI in 2025 was like if they internalized your general mood of “AI won’t work” in 2019-20. Oli is probably referring to that.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
53d
@justanotherlaw @ohabryka it was completely unfair, and his nitpicking exercise didn’t change that.
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
53d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka I do think it’s quite unfair to say that Gary is “exceptionally bad”! He’s doing better than the horde of people who confidently asserted that AIs wouldn’t be able do particular things that they did.
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
53d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka Paul was pretty correct about “prosaic” AI alignment (where you assume there are no fundamental changes from the deep learning paradigm) being the thing to work on back in 2015-6, while most of the AI(S) community was on the “deep learning won’t work” train.
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
53d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka Eli Lifland is also pretty good in prediction tournaments, and Daniel Kokotajlo’s AI 2026 forecasts have held up pretty well:
https://www.alignmentforum.org/p…

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