Gary Marcus

Rank 25 of 47
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Score 22
6/28/2025, 9:42:24 PM
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In reply to:
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
50d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka Like, my point is, if “no model capable of recursive self improvement is trained/ran internally” is the point of interest, I think whether or not this model is deployed is secondary.

I also suspect that people in general would count “GPT-5 announced + research preview available
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
50d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka Nope! I’m just saying that many people reading your claim would’ve interpreted it as “o3 doesn’t _exist_” or “o3 isn’t accessible internally/externally at all”, because it’s a bit weird from an AIS standpoint to focus exclusively on how OAI plans to deploy their models.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
50d
@justanotherlaw @ohabryka so now my prediction was about threat models for catastrophic risk even though i never said such a thing?
Lawrence Chan
@justanotherlaw
·
50d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka This seems like such a silly hill to die on, given your claim (“no GPT-5”) is literally true as written, o1 (rolled out to ChatGPT users in Dec 2024) was also a huge improvement on -4, and most threat models for catastrophic risk don’t require broad public access in the first
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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50d
@ohabryka @justanotherlaw it wasn’t available to any independent scientists
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
·
50d
@justanotherlaw @GaryMarcus But o3 had finished training in 2024! The evals were released in 2024. It was available to some people in a research preview. If you have this much wiggle room with your dates you can avoid falsification in any given year for frontier progress.

The statement is part of a broader discussion about AI models, their deployment, and public communication by companies like Google. It touches on public discourse as it involves the transparency and communication strategies of tech companies regarding AI advancements, which are significant public concerns.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions, maintaining a neutral tone.
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others, as it does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, as it is more focused on expressing skepticism about corporate announcements.
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments, maintaining a focus on the topic rather than individuals.
  5. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly, contributing to a discussion on corporate transparency. [+1]