Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 114
6/28/2025, 10:40:33 PM
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In reply to:
Steven Adler
@sjgadler
·
47d
@GaryMarcus @ohabryka FWIW, I parse Gary’s prediction as being about AI providers / model trainers, not hardware. Seems like that’s the consistent referent of the predictions (are LLMs adopted, are 7-10 GPT-ish LLMs available)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
47d
@ohabryka on nvidia closest i can immediately find was a bit later, quite explicitly saying they are different animal. my focus throughout has been on LLMs and software rather than chips, but it’s true i wasn’t specific enough.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
367d
Theranos likely permanently poisoned the well for legit companies trying to innovate in blood tests.

All the overhype in GenAI threatens to do the same for AI.

NVidia will continue to make money on chips, but for many others this may turn out to be a bloodbath.
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
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47d
@GaryMarcus > in which I expect many insults thrown at me

> biased and redolent of motivated reasoning.

Come on, I tried. Please at least try to approach some better ratio of insults to content.

I tried to evaluate the predictions as written. If you intended to exclude Nvidia, then I
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
47d
@ohabryka This in an incredibly uncharitable read, biased and redolent of motivated reasoning.

If you applied the same to almost any other set of predictions I think you could nitpick those too. It also lacks context (e.g yes 7-10 was an underestimate, but at time when there were like
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
·
47d
@GaryMarcus Ok, on your request, let me go through and evaluate your 2024 predictions myself.

I think the best way to evaluate them is to invert every one of them, and then see whether the version you wrote, or the inverted version seems more correct in-retrospect.

*We will see 7-10
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
48d
Nine June 2029 AI predictions — from someone who was basically 7/7 on 2024:

1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.

2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative

The statement is a lighthearted remark about the proliferation of slightly different AI models from OpenAI. It reflects a casual observation rather than engaging in substantive public discourse.