Gary Marcus

Rank 21 of 47

Score 47

@chatgpt21 they will certainly try. pure LLMs won’t get us there then, though.

i think also that there is a difference between predicting the logic of why the economics would fail (which seems to be basically right) vs guessing the date on which investors would be correct (a matter of

10/15/2025, 10:38:27 PM

In reply to:

Chris

@chatgpt21

22h

@GaryMarcus Couldn’t they use the same argument by saying AGI 2027 and if it arrives in 2029-2030 then they could say “so they were off by a few years”?

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

so i was off by a few months? maybe a year or two? the bottom line is that the profits to justify the expenditures aren’t there.

When I posted this almost nobody thought we are in a bubble. Almost none of the money invested since has led to profits.

And now every from Altman

Bojan Tunguz

@tunguz

Literally the same crap happens with them every year. Around this time last year Gary Marcus was strutting his doomerism in full force.

The statement engages in a discussion about the future of AI and economic predictions related to AI investments. It contrasts the logic behind economic predictions with the uncertainty of timing, suggesting a nuanced view of the situation.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and focuses on a logical analysis of economic predictions. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
It promotes understanding by distinguishing between predicting economic logic and the timing of events. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue without personal attacks, focusing on the topic rather than individuals. [+1]