Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 83
11/22/2025, 7:11:18 PM
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In reply to:
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
@Noahpinion
·
10d
@eli_lifland o3 was AGI! Tyler Cowen called it.

https://marginalrevolution.com/m…
Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland
·
11d
Here is a graph of roughly Daniel and my AGI timelines medians over time. We have updated in both directions in the past and expect to likely do so in the future.

(I recognize that people who think we're acting in bad faith won't trust us, but hopefully interesting for others)
Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland
·
11d
When we published AI 2027, we thought 2027 was one of the most likely years AGI would arrive. But it was not our **median** forecast, those ranged among authors from 2028-2035. Now our medians have moved back a bit, but our most likely year is still ~2028.

More in thread.

The statement is part of a discussion on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) timelines, which is a public issue related to technological advancement and its societal impact. The tone is critical, suggesting a misjudgment in previous predictions.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement is critical but does not appear to cause harm. It challenges a prediction, which is a normal part of discourse.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not promote understanding or empathy, as it focuses on pointing out an error without further explanation or constructive dialogue. [-1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement lacks constructive criticism and does not engage in dialogue, as it simply states that someone 'called it wrongly' without elaboration. [-1]