Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
3/31/2024, 10:42:55 PM
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In reply to:
Oliver Habryka
@ohabryka
·
466d
@GaryMarcus @MatthewJBar That's great! Would you be up for taking a bet on this?

1:1 odds, happy with whatever stake you feel comfortable with. We could delegate arbitration to a trusted third party (maybe Stuart Russell if he is up for it, who I think we would both trust to adjudicate this fairly).
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
466d
@MatthewJBar 💯
Matthew Barnett
@MatthewJBar
·
466d
@GaryMarcus Does that mean you don't expect anything substantially better than GPT-4 in the next 6 months either, if new ideas are not implemented?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
466d
It wasn’t a pause; it was a failure.

Nobody stopped because of external pressure.

They did their best to move forward, past GPT-4—and couldn’t.

The time for new ideas is now.
Matthew Barnett
@MatthewJBar
·
467d
It's interesting that we actually got something like a 6 month pause that FLI was asking for in their open letter. Nothing in the last 12 months has meaningfully surpassed GPT-4.

How much safety benefit did we get from this unforced pause?

The statement is part of a conversation about the development and progress of AI technology, specifically the generational improvements of AI models like GPT-4. The tone is competitive but civil, with a challenge being issued in the form of a bet. The intent is to provoke thought and discussion about the pace of AI advancements and their public testability. The content revolves around the prediction of technological progress and the potential societal impact of such advancements.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not intend to harm with words or actions. [+1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others and does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement indirectly promotes understanding by challenging the public perception of AI progress. [+1]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by setting a challenge that encourages dialogue on AI development. [+1]
  5. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The statement uses influence to potentially benefit society by suggesting the proceeds go to Wikimedia if the bet is won. [+1]
  6. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly, without misinformation or malice. [+1]