Gary Marcus

Rank 32 of 47
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Score -1
4/2/2024, 10:00:10 PM
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In reply to:
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus Well GPT-4 improved with turbo last November, and we should have GPT-4.5 soon. Even doubling in capabilities every 6 months would be a massive exponential. https://openai.com/blog/new-mode…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
@DeryaTR_ Gpt-4 was released a year ago; billions have been spent unsuccessfully trying to exceed it. Surely that’s evidential.
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus There has been a massive leap from GPT-3.5 a year ago to GPT-4 today; not to mention that Claude 3 is already better than GPT-4 in some aspects. There are also significant applications of these technology to scientific questions, which is accelerating discoveries exponentially.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
No, we are not currently in a period of exponential growth.

GPT-4 is over a year old; nothing has exponentially improved upon it, despite an entire extremely well-capitalized industry trying.

There was a great jump; now there is perhaps a plateau.
Kömpileir e/acc↗️
@Kompileir
·
227d
@GaryMarcus @theinformation I get what you're saying and I don't even necessarily disagree. I'm just saying that the tech from then to now is at least an order of magnitude better than it was.

This growth is still happening exponentially. If it's not good enough today, it very well could be tomorrow.

The statement is part of a conversation about the development and improvement of AI technology, specifically the GPT models. It addresses the rate of technological advancement and challenges the claim of exponential growth in AI capabilities. The tone is corrective and informative, aiming to clarify misconceptions about the progress in AI. The intent is to contribute to an accurate understanding of AI development progress.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement aims to correct misinformation without causing harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by providing a more accurate perspective on AI development. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by addressing the claims made about AI progress without personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    While the statement itself does not acknowledge a mistake, it corrects a mistake in the previous claim. [+1]